So sanh tiem luc quan su Nhat Trung

Thứ bảy, 01 Tháng sáu 2013, 08:51 GMT+7

Nhat Ban dang nghiem tuc chuan bi cho mot cuoc chien tranh voi cac nuoc lang gieng – la tieu de chinh cua bai binh luan tren VOR. Va doi thu chinh cua Nhat se la Trung Quoc. Vay so sanh tiem luc quan su giua hai quoc gia den dau?

Ngay 30/5, Hoi dong quoc phong cua Dang Dan chu Tu do da phe duyet du an cai cach quy mo lon cac luc luong vu trang. Du an cung cap kha nang tan cong vao cac can cu quan su cua doi phuong, thiet lap luc luong thuy quan luc chien cung nhu nang cao hieu qua phong thu ten lua.

Dang Dan Chu Tu do cam quyen Nhat Ban de xuat trang bi cho quan doi Nhat Ban cac loai ten lua hanh trinh de tan cong nhung can cu quan su cua doi phuong. Theo du thao van ban nay, o day truoc het noi ve nhung bai thu nghiem ten lua va hat nhan o Bac Trieu Tien. Trong khi do, giam doc Trung tam Nghien cuu Nhat Ban thuoc Vien Vien Dong Valery Kistanov cho rang loai vu khi tan cong nay, nhan the noi them la bi Hien phap Nhat Ban cam doan, co the duoc trien khai theo bat cu huong nao:

“Vang, tat nhien, truoc het o day dang noi ve Bac Trieu Tien, va ke do, di nhien la ve Trung Quoc. He thong phong thu ten lua cung duoc tang cuong xay dung, truoc het la do viec Trung Quoc tang cuong suc manh ten lua hat nhan. Nhu thuong noi, tuy bao la Bac Trieu Tien, nhung thuc ra la ham nghia Trung Quoc”.

Goi cai cach cac luc luong vu trang cua Nhat Ban co dieu muc de cap truc tiep den quan he cua Nhat voi Trung Quoc. Dang LDP Nhat Ban khuyen nghi thanh lap cac don vi thuy quan luc chien. Nhung don vi nay duoc du kien su dung trong truong hop dien ra mot kich ban quan su cho giai phap cuoc xung dot voi Trung Quoc do nhung tranh chap xung quanh cac dao trong khu vuc Bien Hoa Dong. De bao ve nhung vung lanh tho ma Nhat Ban tuyen bo chu quyen, cac don vi thuy quan luc chien se duoc chuyen giao cac thiet bi van tai do bo va may bay van tai My "Osprey".

De danh gia ket cuc cua mot cuoc xung dot co the xay ra, can so sanh tiem luc quan doi Trung Quoc va Nhat Ban. Dong thoi, can loai bo ngay khong xem xet luc quan, boi le luc quan chang co cho de giao chien o quan dao tranh chap, con viec do bo cac don vi luc quan cua Nhat len dat Trung Quoc hay cua Trung Quoc len dat Nhat hoan toan bi loai tru boi vi kha nang do bo khong the bao dam duoc. Vi the ma chi nen so sanh suc manh khong quan va hai quan cua hai ben doi dich.

Hai quan Nhat Ban va hai quan Trung Quoc xet ve suc manh tong hop hien dung thu hai va thu ba the gioi, chi thua Hai quan My (ve so luong tau ngam hat nhan thi thua ca Hai quan Nga, nhung xet chung, ham doi hai nuoc nay manh hon Hai quan Nga). 

Khong quan Nhat hien co 202 may bay tiem kich F-15J va DJ (157 va 45), 67 F-4EJ, 93 F-2А va В (62 va 31), 13 may bay trinh sat RF-4EJ, tuc la 375 may bay chien dau. 

So sanh tiem luc quan su Nhat Trung F15-J

Cac may bay Phantom lac hau (F-4EJ va RF-4EJ) dang bi loai bo dan, ngoai ra, Khong quan Nhat chac cung se loai bo 12 may bay F-2В do nhung hu hong trong vu song than nam ngoai. Boi vay, tong so tiem kich Nhat se giam di. 

So sanh tiem luc quan su Nhat Trung V-22 Osprey

Trong tuong lai, Nhat du dinh mua 42 tiem kich the he 5 F-35 cua My, nhung hien chua ro bao gio viec nay dien ra.

Trong bien che Hai quan Nhat Ban hien co 17 tau ngam (4 chiec lop Sōryū, 11 chiec lop Oyashio, 2 chiec lop Harushio), 4 tau khu truc cho truc thang (2 chiec lop Hyūga va 2 chiec lop Shirane), 38 tau khu truc (4 chiec lop Kongō, 2 chiec lop Atago, 5 chiec lop Takanami, 9 chiec lop Musarame, 6 chiec lop Asagiri, 10 chiec lop Hatsuyuki, 2 chiec lop Hatakaze), 6 frigate (lop Abukuma), 6 tau ten lua nho (lop Hayabusa), 3 tau do bo xe tang (lop Ōsumi), den 30 tau quet loi (cac lop khac nhau). Ngoai ra, Hai quan Nhat dang su dung vao muc dich huan luyen 3 tau ngam lop Harushio, 2 tau khu truc lop Asagiri va 2 tau khu truc lop Hatsuyuki.

So sanh tiem luc quan su Nhat Trung

Tau khu truc Chokai lop Kongo 

Hien dai nhat trong so tau tren la cac tau ngam Sōryū (tong cong se co 7 chiec) va Oyashio, cac tau khu truc (thuc ra la tau san bay hang nhe) Hyūga, Kongō va Atago (thuc chat la tau tuan duong ten lua trang bi he thong Aegis), Takanami va Murasame.

So sanh tiem luc quan su Nhat Trung

Tau do bo san bay lon Hyyga

Quan doi Trung Quoc co may bay chien dau trong ca khong quan Trung Quoc va khong quan hai quan (so luongchi thua kem khong quan hai quan My).

So sanh tiem luc quan su Nhat Trung JF17

Do la khoang 140 may bay nem bom tam trung Н-6 va Н-6М, 150-200 may bay nem bom chien thuat JH-7, 150-550 cuong kich Q-5, khong duoi 100 tiem kich Su-30 va J-16, 200-350 Su-27 va J-11 cac doi khac nhau, 200-250 J-10, gan 200 J-8 va 700-800 J-7. 

So sanh tiem luc quan su Nhat Trung May bay nem bom H-6

Su khac biet dang ke trong nhung con so khong chi boi su dong kin thong tin cua Trung Quoc ma con boi ho dang dan loai bo cac may bay Q-5, J-7 va J-8 thuoc nhung bien the dau, dong thoi san xuat JH-7, J-16 (sao chep trai phep Su-30), J-11B (sao chep trai phep Su-27), J-10 va Q-5 cac bien the sau. 

Khong co gi ngac nhien ve chuyen so luong may bay cuc ky khong on dinh, nhung ro rang la viec san xuat cac may bay moi hoan toan bu dap duoc viec loai bo cac may bay cu.

So sanh tiem luc quan su Nhat Trung J10

Nhin chung, quan doi Trung Quoc co uu the it nhat gap 5 lan ve so luong may bay chien dau so voi Khong quan Nhat Ban, xet ve tat ca cac thanh phan rieng le (may bay tien cong, tiem kich hang nang, tiem kich hang nhe), uu the cung o phia Trung Quoc.

Tuy nhien, xet ve mat chat luong, tiem cac kich hang nang hien dai ho Su-27/Su-30/J-11/J-16 cung khong he thua kem F-15, tiem kich hang nhe J-10 cua Trung Quoc khong thua kem F-2 cua Nhat. 

Trung Quoc con co them uu the la hang tram, neu khong noi la hang ngan ten lua duong dan tam trung va chien dich-chien thuat cac loai, ma nay con them ca cac ten lua hanh trinh phong tu tau chien, may bay va mat dat. Bang cac ten lua nay, Trung Quoc co the tieu diet nhieu muc tieu tinh tren lanh tho Nhat, ma truoc het la cac co so cong nghiep quoc phong. Nhat Ban thi khong he co ten lua duong dan lan ten lua hanh trinh.

Cac tau ngam hat nhan mang ten lua duong dan cua Trung Quoc duong nhien se khong duoc huy dong tham chien chong Nhat Ban, nhung ngay ca khong tinh cac tau ngam nay, ham doi tau ngam Trung Quoc van la dong dao nhat the gioi. 

Luc luong tau ngam Trung Quoc gom co 8 tau ngam hat nhan tien cong (4 tau lop 091 va 4 tau lop 093) va khong duoi 60 tau ngam thong thuong (den 10 chiec lop 041А, 8 chiec lop Projekt 636EM, 2 chiec lop Projekt 636 va 2 lop Projekt 877, 13 chiec lop 039G, 5 chiec lop 035G, 13 chiec lop 035, den 8 chiec lop 033). Tat ca cac tau ngam hat nhan tien cong va tau ngam thong thuong thuoc cac lop 041А, Projekt 636EM va 039G deu mang ten lua chong ham. Cac tau ngam cu thuoc cac lop 033 va 035 dang bi loai bo, de thay cho chung, Trung Quoc dang dong la cac tau ngam lop 041А, bat dau dong tau ngam hat nhan tien cong lop 095 va tau ngam lop 043.

So sanh tiem luc quan su Nhat Trung Tau do bo tinh Cuong Son, Trung Quoc

Chiec tau san bay Varyag cua Lien Xo truoc day, sau do co ten khong chinh thuc cua Trung Quoc la Thi Lang va nay duoc dat ten chinh thuc la Lieu Ninh thu hut nhieu su chu y cua cac chuyen gia nuoc ngoai. Nhung do dac thu thiet ke va khong co may bay tren ham, tau san bay nay se mai mai chi la tau huan luyen-thuc nghiem, chu khong phai la mot tau chien dau thuc su. Cac tau san bay noi dia thuc su cua Trung Quoc se ra doi it ra la sau 10 nam nua. 

Hai quan Trung Quoc hien co 27 tau khu truc: 2 chiec lop Projekt 956, 2 chiec lop Projekt 956EM, 5 chiec lop 052С, 2 chiec lop 052В, 2 chiec lop 052, 2 chiec lop 051С, 1 chiec lop 051В, 2 chiec lop 051 Lu Dai III, 1 chiec lop 051 Lu Dai II va 8 chiec lop 051 Lu Dai I. Tat ca cac tau Lu Dai dang dan bi loai bo, dang duoc dong de thay the cho chung la cac tau khu truc lop 052С. Cac tau ke tu chiec thu ba cua lop 052C co the duoc coi la thiet ke moi (mot so nguon goi la lop 052D). Hai quan Trung Quoc se co it nhat 10 chiec 052D.

So sanh tiem luc quan su Nhat Trung Type 022

Ham doi Trung Quoc hien co 48 frigate: 11 chiec lop 054А, 2 chiec lop 054 va 35 chiec lop 053 thuoc 6 bien the khac nhau (10 chiec 053Н3, 4 chiec 053Н2G, 6 chiec 053Н1G, 3 chiec 053Н2, 6 chiec 053Н1, 6 chiec 053Н). Ngoai ra, con co 2 frigate cu 053Н, nhung da duoc chuyen cho luc luong bao ve bo bien, 1 frigate tuong tu duoc cai hoan thanh tau ho tro do bo (trang bi he thong rocket phong loat), con 1 frigate khac (053НТ-Н) duoc su dung lam tau huan luyen. 

Cac frigate lop 053 thuoc cac bien the dau dang dan dan bi rut khoi bien che hai quan Trung Quoc, thay vao do ho dong cac tau lop 054А (hien co khong duoi 5 tau dang nam o cac xuong dong tau, chac chan sau khi ha thuy cac tau nay thi cac tau moi se duoc khoi dong).

So sanh tiem luc quan su Nhat Trung

TSB Lieu Ninh

Ham doi “tau muoi” (tau nho, xuong chien dau): Trung Quoc co 119 tau ten lua nho (83 toc ham hai than lop 022, 6 tau ten lua nho lop 037-II va 30 tau ten lua nho lop 037-IG) va den 250 tau tuan tra nho. Trung Quoc da bat dau dong cac tau corvette ten lua lop 056 voi so luong se khong duoi 16 chiec. 

Cac luc luong do bo cua hai quan Trung Quoc: Kha lon, gom 3 tau doc do bo cho truc thang lop 071, 30 tau do bo co lon va den 60 tau do bo co vua. Tuy nhien, de to chuc duoc cuoc do bo quan thuc su len lanh tho Nhat Ban thi do hoan toan chua du, con o quan dao tranh chap thi thuc chat khong the do bo len dau duoc, boi vay luc luong do bo chang de lam gi ca. 

Cung can nhac den khong duoi 100 tau quet loi

Thay doi trong tuong lai

Nhu vay, hai quan Trung Quoc co uu the so luong dang ke doi voi Hai quan Nhat, nhat la ve luc luong tau ngam va luc luong nhe. Tuy nhien, uu the chat luong lai o ben phia nguoi Nhat. Diem yeu nhat cua cac tau chien Trung Quoc la phong khong, ngoai le chi co cac tau khu truc thuoc cac lop 051С va 052С/D, nhung ngay ca cac tau nay cung thua kem cac tau khu truc Nhat trang bi he thong Aegis. Hon nua, Nhat Ban co truyen thong hai quan dang ne hon nhieu, dieu co y nghia khong kem phan quan trong trong chien tranh.
Cung can luu y rang, Trung Quoc cung se kho ma hien thuc hoa day du uu the tren khong, boi le chien truong bien tiem nang nam kha xa bo bien cua ca hai nuoc. Dieu do han che vai tro cua khong quan va dat hai quan vao vi tri hang dau, ma o day thi uu the cua hai quan Trung Quoc hoan toan khong ro rang.

Trong truong hop no ra cuoc chien tranh khong-bien quy mo lon, ca hai phia se ganh chiu ton that lon ve tau va may bay, co nghia la ve nhung loai vu khi trang bi tinh vi va dat tien nhat. Dieu do tu than no lam cho viec doi khang vu trang tro nen bat loi doi voi ca Bac Kinh va Tokyo, ton that kinh te tu nhung ton that quan su thuan tuy (bao gom ca tieu hao nhien lieu va dan duoc) co the cao hon ca loi ich tu viec chiem giu quan dao Senkaku. Ton that do hoat dong thuong mai bi pha vo se cuc lon. 

Doi voi Trung Quoc, ton that mot bo phan lon va uu tu nhat cua khong quan va hai quan ma ho da bo hang tram ty do la de phat trien trong thap ky ruoi qua se la mot don cuc ky dau don. Hon nua, vi the ma Trung Quoc se mat hoan toan kha nang gay ap luc bang suc manh doi voi Dai Loan va hon dao nay se co the tuyen bo doc lap ma hau nhu khong bi trung phat.

Mot cach rieng re, can noi ve lap truong cua Washington, boi vi tu lau da ton tai hiep uoc phong thu chung My-Nhat. Chi can co 1-2 cum tau san bay cua Hai quan My se la du de quyet dinh dut khoat ket cuc cuoc chien co loi cho Nhat Ban, tham chi neu nhu My khong chiu tan cong vao lanh tho Trung Quoc ma chi han che o cac hanh dong chong khong quan va hai quan Trung Quoc o vung bien quoc te va tren khong.

Nhu vay, ca doi voi Nhat Ban, va o muc do lon hon la ca voi Trung Quoc, cuoc chien tranh gianh quan dao Senkaku luc nay hoan toan bat loi. Ve thuc chat, no se la that bai nang ne doi voi ca hai ben, bat ke tuong quan ton that cuc the ra sao.

Vi the, ca Tokyo va Bac Kinh se lam moi cach de tranh dung do vu trang ma chi han che o viec gay ap luc ve tam ly (kieu nhu bieu tinh, cuop pha cua hang hay phai hang ngan tau ca den quan dao tranh chap) va co the ca ap luc ve kinh te doi voi nhau. Chien tranh se chi bung no do tinh hinh leo thang khong the kiem soat vi mot su co bat ngo nao do, dieu rat kho co kha nang xay ra. 

Tuy nhien, trong tuong lai, tinh hinh co the thay doi boi vi can can suc manh tren khong, cung nhu tren bien dang thay doi nhanh chong theo huong co loi cho Trung Quoc. Nhip do san xuat may bay va tau chien moi o Trung Quoc cao hon khong chi may lan ma la hang chuc lan so voi Nhat Ban, hon nua la moi nam mot tang len. Tham chi, ngay ca My cung khong co kha nang cung luc dong hon 10 tau chien noi co lon nhu dang dien ra o Trung Quoc hien nay. 

Chinh vi the ma vao cuoi thap nien nay, tinh the co the la Trung Quoc se co kha nang thuc su danh thang cuoc chien tranh khong-bien voi Nhat Ban, dong thoi vo hieu hoa Ham doi 7 cua My.

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