Kich ban chien tranh Trung Nhat o Thai Binh Duong

Thứ tư, 05 Tháng sáu 2013, 08:40 GMT+7

Tinh hinh tranh chap Trung Quoc va Nhat Ban ngay mot nong len. Neu xay ra cuoc xung dot giua hai cuong quoc kinh te nay, kich ban cua tran chien tren Thai Binh duong se dien ra the nao?  

Cho den nay ca hai ben deu co gang kiem che de dua ra nhung tuyen bo mang tinh quan su cung ran. Nhung nhung xung dot tiem an trong do ham chua mot nguy co chuyen thanh xung dot vu trang va kho co the doan truoc se khong no ra mot cuoc chien tranh co gioi han?!

Cac chuyen gia chien luc quan su nuoc ngoai cung dua ra nhung nhan xet trai chieu, mau thuan va tham chi doi khang nhau. Thu so sanh luc luong va du bao tinh huong neu xay ra cuoc xung dot giua hai cuong quoc kinh te nay, kich ban cua tran chien tren Thai Binh duong se dien ra the nao?


Vi tri quan dao Senkaku
Vi tri quan dao Senkaku.
Tuong quan luc luong

Luc luong phong ve Bien Nhat Ban co khoang 134 ham tau cac chung loai, 339 may bay cac loai trong do co 44 chien ham hien dai. Trong do co 2 tau khu truc do bo hang nang lop Hyuga, 2 tau do bo hang trung lop Shirane. Nhom tau khu truc hien dai co trang bi ten lua co dieu khien (DDG) gom 2 tau lop Atago, 4 tau lop Kongo, 2 tau lop Hatakaze. Nhom tau khu truc thong thuong (DG) gom 2 tau lop Akizuki, 5 tau lop Takanami, 9 tau lop Murasame, 8 tau lop Asagiri, 10 tau lop Hatsuyuki.


Tau khu truc do bo lop Hyuga
Tau khu truc do bo lop Hyuga.
Mac du khong so huu tau ngam hat nhan, nhung Nhat Ban la mot trong so cac quoc gia co nhieu tau ngam diesel-dien co tinh nang ky - chien thuat tuong doi cao, do on rat thap va kha nang hoat dong lau ngay do su dung dong co Striling va duoc lap dat cac khi tai dien tu, ngu loi va ten lua chong tau, tan cong cac muc tieu mat dat hien dai.

Hai quan Nhat dang so huu khoang 18 tau ngam trong do 4 tau ngam tan cong lop Soryu, 11 tau lop Oyashio va 3 tau lop Harushio (dung cho nhiem vu huan luyen thuy thu).


Khu truc ham lop Kongo
Khu truc ham lop Kongo.
Tau ngam lop Oyashio SS-590
Tau ngam lop Oyashio SS-590.
Dong thoi luc luong phong ve bien Nhat Ban cung duoc trang bi mot so loai tau ra quet min thuy loi cac loai, so luong khoang 29 tau. Cac tau do bo hien dai nhu 3 tau do bo lop Osumi, 2 tau do bo phuc vu lop I-Go, 2 tau lop Yura, tong so khoang tu 7-9 tau.

Khong quan hai quan Nhat Ban bao gom: May bay chong ngam Lockheed P-3 Orion, Kawasaki P-1 82 chiec, may bay tac chien va trinh sat dien tu EP-3 5 chiec, truc thang chong ngam Mitsubishi SH-60 – 97 chiec, may bay truc thang ra quet va rai thuy loi CH-53E Super Stallion, AgustaWestland AW101, 17 chiec va truc thang tac chien tren bien UH-60\' Black Hawk 19 chiec.


May bay Mitsubishi F 15 cua Nhat Ban
May bay chien dau F 15 cua Nhat Ban.
Luc luong phong ve khong quan Nhat Ban co quan so khoang 45.000 nguoi (2005), bien che trang bi 791 may bay cac chung loai, cac may bay chien dau la 350 chiec bao gom Mitsubishi F-2, tiem kich hang nang F-15 Eagle, F-4 Phantom II (trong do co 12 chiec F-2 da bi hu hai boi song than va bi loai bo, cac may bay Phantom se dan duoc thay the boi F- 15s hoac F- 35As); May bay trinh sat dien tu canh bao som va kiem soat bau troi Boeing E-767, Grumman E-2 Hawkeye, tong so la 17 chiec; May bay tac chien dien tu NAMC YS-11, Kawasaki C-1 tong so 5 chiec.

Vu khi phong khong cua Nhat Ban bao gom co sung tu dong phong khong M167 VADS, ten lua danh chan MIM-104 Patriot (PAC-2 & PAC-3), ten lua phong khong Type 81, Type 91 va he thong ten lua phong khong tam thap danh chan ten lua he thong Aegis (Surface-to-Air Missile for Aerial base Defense)

Luc luong Hai quan Trung Quoc co khoang 250,000 quan nhan, bien che 1 tau tuan duong, 14 Tau khu truc trong do co 4 Khu truc ham 956/ 956EM Hang Sovremenny ; 1 Khu truc ham 051B (Lu Hai ); 2 Khu truc ham 051C ( Lu chau); 2 Khu truc ham 052B( Luong ); 5 Khu truc ham 052C hang ( Luong II). 28 Tau khinh ham cac loai; 2 tau Lop 052 (Lu Ho); 1 tau lop 051 (Lu Dai ); 13 tau Lop 054A(Giang Khai ); 2 tau Lop 054 (Giang Khai ); Tau ho ve ten lua (Corvette) 35 chiec, tau ten lua toc do cao 119 chiec.


Tau tuan duong Cap Nhi Tan cua Trung Quoc
Tau tuan duong Cap Nhi Tan cua Trung Quoc.
Khu truc ham lop 52C Trung Quoc
Khu truc ham lop 52C Trung Quoc.
Luc luong tau ngam cua PLAN rat lon, voi tat ca cac loai tau: Tau ngam nguyen tu mang ten lua SSBN: 5 chiec, tau ngam nguyen tu tan cong da nhiem SSN: 8 chiec; tau ngam diesel dien co khoang 58 chiec bao gom: lop Tong (Song-class): 14; lop Kilo cac loai 877EKM, 636; 636M: 12; lop 041 Nguyen (Yuan-class) - 2; lop 033 - Romeo (Romeo-class) – 6; lop 035G - Minh (Ming-class) – 17; mot tau ngam diesel ten lua va mot tau ngam diesel cuu ho.

PLA co khoang 58 tau do bo cac loai, trong do co ca tau do bo dem khi co lon Zubr san xuat xuat xu tu Ukraina, co toc do tien cong va do bo duong bien rat lon. Luc luong khong quan Hai quan Trung quoc co khoang hon 200 may bay.

Cac chien ham cong kich chu luc cua Trung Quoc duoc trang bi cac loai ten lua doi ham va phong khong rat manh nhu ten lua chong tau Moskit, Club - K 3M-54E1, cac ten lua do Trung Quoc san xuat theo cac ban copy, trong do co ca ten lua mau copy Tomahawk. Ten lua phong khong S-300 lap tren tau (HHQ-9), dong thoi cung duoc trang bi cac loai ngu loi tien tien nhu ngu loi ten lua VA-111 Shkval. He thong radar tac chien cung duoc nang cap dang ke, tuy chua duoc hien dai nhu Aegic nhung cung da tien gan den nhung yeu cau ky thuat cua he thong dieu khien hoa luc mang hien dai.

Cac chien ham tan cong cua Trung Quoc cung duoc ap dung cong nghe Steath (tang hinh) voi phuong phap tan xa cac tia radar chu dong.

Khong quan Trung Quoc co so luong may bay tac chien kha lon, tinh rieng so luong may bay tiem kich da nhiem cac du an thiet ke nhu Chengdu J-10, Sukhoi Su-30MKK, Shenyang J-11, Sukhoi Su-27, Shenyang J-8, Chengdu J-7, PLA co khoang 1.045 may bay chien dau hien dai; may bay cuong kich danh chan, may bay nem bom co khoang 540 chiec, may bay trinh sat va canh bao, tac chien dien tu du an thiet ke KJ 2000 AWAC va KJ 200 AEW&C co 10 chiec (Cac con so tinh den nua dau nam 2012). Truc thang chien dau co khoang gan 100 chiec. Dong thoi Trung Quoc cung so huu rat nhieu loai may bay chien dau khong nguoi lai.

Nhu vay, diem qua cac con so thong ke thuc te, co the nhan thay, so luong cac phuong tien tac chien khong hai cua Trung Quoc lon hon rat nhieu lan so voi Nhat Ban. Cung phai nhan xet rang, cac phuong tien tac chien cua Trung Quoc moi duoc san xuat, dua theo cac tieu chuan ky chien thuat cua cac nuoc tien tien, truoc het la khoi NATO va Nga.

Nhat "quy ho tinh bat quy ho da"

Theo y kien cua chuyen gia phan tich chien luoc, ong Vasily Kashin, tong bien tap to tap chi Moscow Defence Brief nhan dinh: Tren bien, luc luong hai quan PLA vuot troi han ve so luong, nhung ve chat luong, ham doi cua Trung Quoc thua sut hon han ve chat luong.

Ong Vasily kashin phan tich: Trung Quoc da dong nhung chien ham hien dai bat dau vao nhung nam 2007. Cac chien ham truoc day da qua loi thoi va hu hong, Trung Quoc co nhieu tau ngam, bao gom ca tau ngam nguyen tu, tren thuc te la mot hiem hoa doi voi luc luong hai quan Nhat. Luc luong hai quan Nhat ban duoc xay dung tap trung vao nang luc chong ngam, dac biet de chong lai cac tau ngam Lien Xo. Cac chuyen gia quan su My trong tac chien khong - hai da dua ra nhan xet – trong cac ke hoach tac chien chong ngam, kinh nghiem, trang thiet bi va cac giai phap cua quan nhan Nhat Ban duoi mot goc nhin nao do con vuot ca luc luong chong ngam quan doi My.

Nguoi ta hoan toan chua biet nhieu lam ve luc luong tau ngam Trung Quoc, nhung PLA cung khong the hien cao lam kha nang tac chien tau ngam. Luc luong binh chung tau ngam khong co chat luong cao va khong duoc huan luyen san sang chien dau cuong do cao trong tac chien tau ngam. Ho van con bi chi phoi boi tu duy “dat lien quyet dinh bien khoi”.

Trung Quoc hien nay dang giu mot vi the tuong tu nhu Lien Xo vao giai doan cuoi nam 1950-x – 1960-x – ong Kashin nhan dinh – ho se xay dung luc luong hai quan hien dai de vuon ra bien lon, nhung ho cung dung truoc nhung van de rat kho khan: Thu nhat – vuot qua vo van nhung kho khan ve ky thuat va cong nghe, dieu do chiem mot thoi gian rat lon. Thu hai – Trung Quoc can tien hanh mot buoc dai nhay vot ve nang luc tac chien, kha nang chien dau, chien thuat va to chuc bien che luc luong vu trang trong tac chien hien dai. Hai quan Lien Xo trong dieu kien luc do, da bat dau phat trien tu nhung ham doi ven bo, khong co kha nang tac chien tren bien lon, trai qua 10 nam no luc da co the tien hanh nhung hoat dong tren cac vung nuoc dai duong. Trung Quoc hien nay moi o giai doan khoi dau.

Vao nhung nam 1980-x Hai quan PLA bat dau tien trinh thoat khoi quan diem phong thu bo bien va vung nuoc ven bo: cac ham doi den thoi diem do chu yeu la cac cum tau lon voi mot so luong nho cac tau co luong gian nuoc lon, dai da so la cac chien ham hang nhe va cac xuong phong loi, ten lua toc do cao, dong thoi co mot so luong rat lon cac don vi phao bo bien. Su phat trien thuc su cua ham doi bat dau vao nhung nam 1990-x. Ham doi phat trien co chat luong cao duoc bat dau tu thap nien gan day, nguyen nhan chu yeu van la thieu hut ve kinh nghiem va hoc vien quan su hai quan, dieu se lam cho hai quan PLA cam thay tu tin hon trong hanh dong.

Pho giam doc thu nhat cua Hoc vien Cac van de dia chinh tri, Thuyen truong cap 1 Konstantin Sivkov danh gia cao ve nhung kha nang cua quan doi PLA dac biet la khong quan va hai quan: “ Theo so luong thi binh luc cua Trung Quoc vuot troi hon nhieu lan Nhat Ban. Trung Quoc co khoang 1,5 trieu quan thuong truc chien dau thoi binh (theo sach Trang PLA), Nhat Ban co khoang 250 nghin quan. Neu chien tranh xay ra tren dao, thi luc luong tac chien chu yeu se la khong quan va hai quan. Trung Quoc de giai quyet bai toan xung dot vu trang thoi gian ngan co the su dung mot luc luong khong quan khoang 400 – 500 may bay, khoang hon 20 tau ngam diesel – dien, ket hop voi khoang 3 tau ngam nguyen tu.

Cac dao Senkaku co vi tri dia ly khong xa bo bien cua Trung Quoc, do do PLAN co the tang cuong mot so luong lon cac tau cao toc ten lua, tau khu truc ten lua. Nhat Ban co the dieu dong khoang 150 may bay tiem kich da nhiem cap chien thuat, khoang 10 chiec tau diesel – dien, 5 – 10 tau khu truc va tau ho ve ten lua. Bien che binh luc cua Nhat Ban neu tinh ve so luong thap hon cum khong quan hai quan cong kich cua PLAN khoang 3 lan.”


May bay tiem kich da nhiem Chengju J-10
May bay tiem kich da nhiem Chengju J-10.
Luc luong khong quan cua PLA co ban la cac may bay da loi thoi. Ve chat luong ky chien thuat, cac phuong tien tac chien cua Nhat Ban vuot troi ve chat luong. Trung Quoc hien da co may bay trinh sat va canh bao som nhung so luong it oi va cong nghe thua xa Nhat.

Nhat Ban da trang bi may bay trinh sat duoc trang bi hien dai, co the quan ly toan bo khong gian tac chien va dieu hanh cac hoat dong tac chien tren khong, su vuot troi ve cong nghe do tao ra uu the lam chu bau troi cua khong quan tiem kich Nhat Ban. Noi chung, trong tac chien tren khong, can can luc luong cua Trung Quoc va Nhat Ban tuong duong nhau, du so luong cua khong quan PLA lon hon.


Tiem kich – nem bom Hai quan JH-7
Tiem kich – nem bom Hai quan JH-7.
So sanh can can luc luong cua hai quan, cac tau ngam cua Trung Quoc theo cac thong so ky chien thuat va cong nghe che tao thi tuong duong voi cac ham tau duoc san xuat vao nhung nam 1970 –x. Cac tau ngam co tieng on lon nen bi Nhat de dang phat hien duoc, tham chi phia Nhat con noi cac tau nay on nhu \'khua chuong go mo\'.

Nhat Ban co nhung tau ngam hien dai hon, do on thap hon, do do hieu qua tac chien ngam cao hon cua Trung Quoc. Thuc te so sanh binh luc thi so luong chien ham tham chien cua Trung Quoc chan chan lon hon cua Nhat Ban tu 2 - 3 lan, mac du so luong ten lua va tam ban cua cac ten lua do tuong duong nhau.

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