Tong cuc truong Tong cuc Thong ke CPI am dung voi tang cung tien

Thứ ba, 26 Tháng sáu 2012, 14:55 GMT+7

Dung la sau 38 thang CPI lien tuc tang, thi nay da giam. Hay chi tinh rieng thang 6 cua 9 nam gan day (tu 2004 den nay), thi day cung la nam dau tien CPI giam.

-------------------

>> Lam phat Viet Nam xuong thap ky luc trong 3 nam

-------------------
images/vn888/hot/v2012/20120626-145529-1-ong-Do-Thuc.jpeg

Ong Do Thuc - Tong cuc truong Tong cuc Thong ke

Tong cuc Thong ke vua cong bo chi so gia tieu dung (CPI) ca nuoc thang 6, lan dau tien sau 38 thang, giam 0,26% so voi thang truoc. Day da la dau hieu cua giam phat? Co gi dang lo ngai tu con so lam phat am nay? Ong Do Thuc (anh), Tong Cuc truong Tong cuc Thong ke, tra loi phong van Tien Phong.

Chua den nguong giam phat

Lan dau tien sau 38 thang, Tong cuc Thong ke cong bo CPI giam 0,26%. Con so nay noi len dieu gi, thua ong?

Dung la sau 38 thang CPI lien tuc tang, thi nay da giam. Hay chi tinh rieng thang 6 cua 9 nam gan day (tu 2004 den nay), thi day cung la nam dau tien CPI giam.

CPI giam la ket qua cua ca mot qua trinh thuc hien chinh sach tien te chat che, co kiem soat. Neu can cu muc tieu trong nam 2012 la kiem che lam phat, on dinh kinh te vi mo thi viec CPI giam la tin hieu mung va toi cho do la thanh qua tich cuc.

Cung co chuyen gia lo ngai CPI giam, trong khi tang truong tin dung 5 thang dau nam van am, cong voi hang hoa ton kho... se dan toi tinh trang giam phat, thieu phat va su tri tre cua nen kinh te.

Tuy nhien, toi cho rang muon danh gia mot nen kinh te co phai la thieu phat va tri tre hay khong thi khong the can cu vao mot thang, hai thang ma phai can cu vao nhieu thang.

Khi ma CPI giam lien tuc qua mot thoi ky thi day moi la giam phat. Hien CPI chi moi giam mot thang, va muc giam chi la 0,26%, con nhung thang truoc do van tang, nen khong the goi do la giam phat.

Neu ta cho day la giam phai de roi lo lang, voi va do tien vao nen kinh te that nhanh de vuc day nen kinh te thi CPI se lai tro lai nhu thoi ky nam 2009-2010.

Chung ta khong nen qua lo lang, ban tam nhieu den no. Thuc ra mot thang CPI giam, nhung so voi cung ky no van o muc 6,9%, khong phai thap. Phan tich nhu the de thay rang, co the thang sau, CPI tiep tuc giam thi cung khong phai co gi phai qua lo lang.

Ve nguyen tac, CPI giam trong vong bao lau thi bi coi la giam phat?

Ve mat ly thuyet, neu chi so CPI giam lien tuc tu 6-7 thang moi co the coi la giam phat.

Neu nen kinh te cua ta (dang phat trien) ma thieu phat hay giam phat la dieu dang lo lang, vi no khien san suat dinh tre, dan toi suc mua giam, that nghiep gia tang. Con nhu hien nay thi chua co van de gi dang lo.

Phai kiem soat duoc dong tien

Nhung thuc te, hien hang ton kho lon, hang van DN da ngung hoat dong, thua ong?

Mot chi so quan trong la san xuat cong nghiep, 6 thang dau nam van tang tren 4%. Xet tong the ca nam, toc do tang cham hon nam truoc, nhung chua giam.

Tuy nhien, cung can phai thao go van de von cho doanh nghiep de ham nong nen kinh te mot chut, neu khong se dan toi giam phat.

Tuy nhien, van de can luu y la nhung dong von tung ra phai dung dia chi, dung doi tuong, moi tao hieu qua. Neu cu vung tien, nham tang cung tien, ma khong hieu qua thi lam phat cao se quay tro lai nhu nam 2010.

Con mot so yeu to nhu doanh nghiep ngung san xuat, pha san, hang ton kho nhieu... thi do cung la quy luat.

Vi du, voi doanh nghiep bat dong san, chung khoan truoc day dat sieu loi nhuan, bay gio lo von, pha san la chuyen binh thuong. Chung ta can phai co su binh tinh de nhin nhan, danh gia.

De tranh giam phat, Chinh phu da co goi giai phap ho tro bang chinh sach thue, tin dung. Nhu vay bai toan dat ra da co loi giai, van de hien nay la thuc thi no.

Nhung linh vuc can phai khuyen khich cho vay thi lam the nao de doanh nghiep do co the vay duoc. Gan day, ngan hang cung da co dong thai va chinh sach cu the nhung viec tiep can von chua nhieu.

Neu nhu trong 6 thang cuoi nam ma ta cai thien duoc de nhung linh vuc can von nhu nong nghiep, xuat khau, cong nghiep che bien... tiep can duoc von se tao ra nhieu cong an viec lam, thi toi cho rang nen kinh te van phat trien.

Viec dua tien vao luu thong, de san xuat kinh doanh la can nhung phai dung dia chi va quan trong la phai kiem soat duoc. Neu lam duoc dieu do, CPI se o trong vong kiem soat va dam bao duoc on dinh nen kinh te.

CPI ca nam 2012 se o muc hon 6%


Dien bien CPI
Dien bien CPI.
 

Ong du bao the nao ve chi so CPI tu nay den cuoi nam?

CPI thang 6 co giam chut xiu, nhung nguy co va tiem an CPI tang van khong phai khong co. Moi nam, cu moi lan tang luong thi no tac dong ngay den CPI nhung nam nay chua thay tac dong lon.

Thuc ra cung tien tien mat (M2), tong phuong tien thanh toan gan bo voi nhau, cung cau co quan he truc tiep nhung qua quan sat viec tang luong vua qua khong lam cho nhung yeu to nay tang theo.

Vi the, neu khong kiem soat chat thi CPI cua quy 4 se tang. Cho nen tiem an cua CPI tang van con. Toi danh gia CPI cua ca nam 2012 se o muc hon 6%.

Voi quan he giua CPI va van de tin dung cung nhu lai suat hien nay thi ngan hang con co the giam lai suat den muc do nao, thua ong?

Lau nay dan minh can cu vao CPI de quyet dinh tien nhan roi. Lai suat tru di chi so CPI ma thuc duong thi nguoi ta mang tien gui ngan hang.

Hien, lai suat tien gui 9%, neu CPI muc do duoi 7% van con thuc duong lon, nen theo toi lai suat huy dong co the giam them, de tu do ngan hang giam lai suat cho vay.

Ben canh do, toi cho rang cac ngan hang cung can chia se kho khan chung voi DN. O cac nuoc, kinh doanh loi nhuan binh quan duoc ton trong. Tuc cung lam kinh doanh, thi giua cac nganh, linh vuc cang dat chi so loi nhuan tiem can nhau thi cang vung chac.

Ngan hang khong the dat lai lon, trong khi khach hang mang lai loi nhuan cho minh thi lo von, nhu the lam sao ben duoc.

Ngay ca thu nhap cua ngan hang cung vay, khong the huong luong cao chot vot trong khi nhung nganh khac thi thap le te. Moi nguoi biet chia se voi nhau mot ti thi chac chan co phat trien.

Cam on ong.

Vietbao.vn (Theo cafef)

Cac bai viet khac:

Tiep theo >>


^ Lên đầu trang ^


Copyright © 2006-2012 by VietBao.vn
Viet Bao Viet Nam - All Rights Reserved.