Binh tinh truoc con sot nong

Thứ sáu, 03 Tháng hai 2012, 10:56 GMT+7

Da tang diem cua thi truong hien nay la rat dang khich le, nhung nha dau tu (NDT) cung can than trong, boi trien vong cua buc tranh kinh te va doanh nghiep (DN) van chua ro rang.

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Buoc sang nam Nham Thin, thi truong chung khoan (TTCK) co nhung phien tang diem rat lac quan. Niem tin dang duoc nhen nhom lai tu nhung thong diep ma nguoi dung dau nganh tai chinh, ngan hang cong bo truoc, trong dip Tet Nguyen dan.

Viec cong bo chi so VN30 cung tao ra su quan tam moi tren toan thi truong. Tuy nhien, khao sat cua DTCK o mot so cong ty niem yet van cho thay, nhung kho khan vi mo ma DN phai doi mat con rat be bon va chua co dau hieu cai thien ro ret.

Truoc tien la lai suat cho vay dang co dau hieu tang nhe trong dau nam moi. Cac DN cho biet, lai suat cho vay o mot so ngan hang co phan tang tu 0,5 den 1%/nam.

Rieng Vietinbank chao lai suat len den 18%/nam so voi muc 16,5%/nam giai ngan cho khach hang vay truoc Tet. Trong khi do, nhom ngan hang lon nhu BIDV va Vietcombank hay ANZ, HSBC van giu nguyen lai suat chao vay.

Ly do lai suat cho vay tang duoc cho la nhieu ngan hang chiu ap luc thanh khoan trong dip Tet khi ma DN va nguoi gui tien co nhu cau rut tien mat lon. Tuy nhien, lieu viec tang lai suat cho vay o mot so ngan hang co lan toa ra cac ngan hang khac, hay se on dinh tro lai trong mot hai tuan toi, van la cau hoi ma cac DN chua du doan duoc.

Tin hieu tang lai suat dau nam da gay suc ep tam ly buoc DN da than trong, lai cang than trong hon trong san xuat kinh doanh. Trao doi voi chung toi, nhung DN niem yet dau nganh thep, vat lieu xay dung, xay lap, bat dong san deu du bao, muc tang truong cua DN nam nay se thap hon han moi nam.

Du bao tang truong thap chu yeu do xu huong giam tang truong tin dung, cat giam dau tu cong se tiep tuc duoc duy tri nam 2012, trong khi cac chinh sach phat huy noi luc cua khoi kinh te dan doanh va nguon von trong xa hoi nhu du tru vang va ngoai te cua dan chua co gi cu the de ky vong ve nguon von moi thay the cho nguon von bi cat giam. Mot tin hieu nho moi day la Bo Giao thong Van tai kien nghi can co them uu dai de huy dong nguon von dau tu vao du an co so ha tang giao thong.

Lam phat trong thang Tet duoc kiem che tot, khong tang cao nhu cac nam, song cac cong ty chung khoan van canh bao ve nguy co lam phat tang cao khi gia gas da tang va gia dien se con tang trong nam nay.

Trong khi do, nguoi dan van tiep tuc quan tam den kenh dau tu vang. Vao ngay via Than tai 10 thang Gieng vua qua, luong tieu thu vang o thi truong phia Nam tang vot. O Ha Noi, cua hang vang tren pho Tran Nhan Tong mo cua den 8h toi van dong kin nguoi mua. Thoi ky nay, khi gia vang tang cao, nguoi dan do vang ra ban khong nhieu, nhung neu gia vang xuong thap thi luong mua se tang len. Dieu do cho thay, tam ly nam giu vang cua nguoi dan con rat lon va khong de dang huy dong nguon von nay khi nhung quyet sach phat trien kinh te duoc tien hanh chua du do chin, de thuyet phuc nguoi dan bo tien vao san xuat kinh doanh hay TTCK.

Trong tinh hinh kinh te vi mo con kho khan, loi nhuan quy I cua cac DN niem yet du kien khong phai la con so dep va ke hoach loi nhuan nam 2012 chac chan se rat than trong. Da tang diem cua thi truong hien nay la rat dang khich le, nhung voi nha dau tu, viec chon mua co phieu cung can than trong, boi trien vong sang sua cua buc tranh kinh te vi mo cung nhu tai moi DN van chua ro rang.

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